Kerangka Matematis Dinamis dalam Analisis Keseimbangan Pasar Beras di Indonesia: Pendekatan Fungsi Linear Permintaan–Penawaran dan Stabilitas Sistem

Firda Alfiana Patricia; Novi Eko Prasetyo

doi:10.31004/cendekia.v10i2.4955

Firda Alfiana Patricia Pendidikan Matematika Universitas Insan Budi Utomo
Novi Eko Prasetyo Pendidikan Ekonomi Universitas Insan Budi Utomo

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31004/cendekia.v10i2.4955

Keywords: beras, elastisitas, keseimbangan pasar, pemodelan matematis, sistem dinamis

Abstract

Beras merupakan komoditas pangan utama di Indonesia sehingga dinamika pasarnya sangat penting bagi ketahanan pangan dan stabilitas harga. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan kerangka matematis dinamis untuk menganalisis keseimbangan pasar beras melalui integrasi fungsi permintaan–penawaran linear dengan mekanisme penyesuaian harga. Pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan dengan memperluas model keseimbangan statis menjadi sistem dinamis berbasis persamaan diferensial, dengan parameter yang diestimasi menggunakan data time series sekunder melalui regresi linear. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan harga keseimbangan sebesar Rp13.640/kg dan jumlah keseimbangan sebesar 23,63 juta ton yang konsisten dengan kondisi empiris. Analisis stabilitas membuktikan bahwa keseimbangan bersifat stabil asimtotik, sehingga harga akan konvergen menuju titik keseimbangan dari berbagai kondisi awal. Permintaan beras bersifat inelastis, yang menunjukkan rendahnya respons konsumsi terhadap perubahan harga. Analisis kesejahteraan menunjukkan bahwa keseimbangan memaksimalkan surplus total sehingga memenuhi efisiensi Pareto. Analisis komparatif juga menunjukkan bahwa guncangan pada sisi penawaran, khususnya akibat variasi produksi dan faktor iklim, berpengaruh signifikan terhadap dinamika harga. Penelitian ini menawarkan kerangka terpadu antara model statis dan dinamis yang meningkatkan kekuatan analisis pasar pangan. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya kebijakan stabilisasi pasokan untuk menjaga stabilitas harga beras di Indonesia.

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